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Food inflation in India surged to a 15-month high of 10.9% in October, contributing to a retail inflation peak of 6.2%. Amid these rising inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank of India is facing calls for interest rate cuts to boost economic growth, despite maintaining current rates.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain interest rates during its meeting on December 6, amid a significant increase in consumer inflation. This development has prompted several economists to revise their forecasts for the first rate cut, now anticipated in February.
Indian banks are facing a liquidity deficit for the first time in two months, as the Reserve Bank of India’s dollar sales to support the rupee have drained cash from the financial system. On Monday, banks borrowed a net 141.98 billion rupees ($1.68 billion) from the RBI, marking a significant shift from earlier this month when they had a surplus of around 2 trillion rupees parked with the central bank daily.
Parliament was informed that the Group of Ministers (GoM) examining GST on life and health insurance will present its recommendations to the GST Council once received. The issue of exempting or reducing GST was discussed at the Council's 54th meeting on September 9, 2024, leading to the GoM's formation under Bihar's Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary. The first GoM meeting took place on October 19, 2024, focusing on GST rates, which currently stand at 18% for health and pure term life insurance services.
The GST Council discussed the exemption and reduction of GST on life and health insurance during its 54th meeting on September 9, 2024, leading to the formation of a Group of Ministers (GoM) chaired by Bihar's Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary. The GoM's first meeting on October 19, 2024, focused on GST rates, which currently stand at 18% for health and pure term life insurance. Revenue from GST on these services reached Rs 8,263 crore and Rs 8,135 crore in fiscal 2023-24, showing a mixed trend compared to the previous year.
India's foreign reserves experienced their largest weekly decline ever, dropping by $17.76 billion to $657.9 billion as of November 15. This marks the seventh consecutive week of decline, reflecting the central bank's intervention to support the local currency, which hit a record low. The reserves are now at their lowest level since July 5.
Primary market subscriptions on the RBI retail direct platform surged by 78.38% year-on-year in November, reaching Rs 5,624.85 crore as of November 18. The majority of this growth was driven by treasury bills, which saw subscriptions rise over 82% to Rs 3,888.36 crore, despite a decline in cut-off yields due to improved liquidity and increased investor demand.
The ongoing debate between the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) over optimal borrowing rates highlights a recurring issue. While the finance minister advocates for cheaper loans to boost manufacturing, the reality is that interest rates account for only a small fraction of production costs, with demand being the primary driver of manufacturing output. Ultimately, lowering benchmark interest rates may not be feasible or beneficial at this juncture.
The Indian rupee's stability, praised by foreign investors and policymakers, is largely attributed to the Reserve Bank of India. However, this stability may mask an overvaluation, as indicated by the real effective exchange rate (REER), which assesses the currency's fair value against a 40-currency trade-weighted basket.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasized the importance of growth for the Global South during a policy conference in Mumbai, stating it must not compromise price stability. He urged countries to enhance investment in infrastructure, leverage technology, and implement institutional reforms, supported by conducive public and monetary policies.
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